A Forecasting Platform User Profited $436,000 from Bets Predicting Venezuela's Political Shift.
A bettor profited close to $500,000 by predicting the removal of the Venezuelan leader just before it was publicly declared, leading to inquiries about the possibility of profiting from non-public details of the US operation.
Changing Odds in Forecasts
Wagers on Polymarket, an online prediction market, that the leader would be removed from office by the end of January increased in the hours before Donald Trump announced on the weekend that Maduro had been taken into custody.
One account, which registered on the site last month and made four bets, all on Venezuela, earned over $436,000 from a starting bet of over $32,000.
The identity is unknown. The anonymous account had only a string of letters and numbers for identification.
Probability Spikes Before News Break
Trading information shows that participants put the odds of a political change at just a low 6.5 percent in the late afternoon of Friday, January 2nd.
However the odds had climbed to over 10% by late Friday night and spiked dramatically in the first hours of the next day, pointing to a sharp shift in positions just before the social media post was made.
"That trade has all the hallmarks of a bet based on confidential knowledge," stated a financial reform advocate.
A small number of other platform users also earned significant sums from similar wagers.
Regulatory Scrutiny Intensifies
Some lawmakers are growing concerned.
A new rule put forward on recently aims to prohibit government employees from participating on prediction markets if they have "insider details" related to a market.
Market Background
Prediction markets have become increasingly popular in the past few years, with traders able to bet on everything from sports to current affairs.
This sector faced scrutiny under the previous administration. However it has found a more favorable environment during the Trump presidency.
Insider trading is against the law in the stock market, but there are less oversight in the event betting arena.
An official representative for a competing service said their site "has clear rules against such activities of any form."
