The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Fuels Villa's Unlikely Title Charge

Just 60 days ago that the Villa attacker found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while his coach scolded him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. During that period, with the team failed to win in six, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were an indicator or the reason of Villa's more general malaise.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

The Sideline Explosion of Elation

This weekend, though, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. After the England international drilled in his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their initial half-dozen matches, now sit only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Genuine Hopefuls?

That’s an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. History, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, even as the wins have accumulated.

As per Opta, on just two occasions has the side registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club who have strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa look curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the fine lines are swinging for them.

The Rogers Recipe

The current approach appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with some clinical strikes. It happened at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more versus Manchester United.

His opener originated from an exquisite effort, bent just inside the goal frame from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

An Unstoppable Force

Can It Last?

Logic says not. Against United, Manchester United registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.

Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent they must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, surely, will not continue to blasting the football into the net's top corner week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures may yet return to peak condition.

  • The centre-forward might resume scoring again.
  • The winger might become the force he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
  • Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to regain fitness, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.

Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.

Enjoying the Ride

Yet, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Aston Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial England player.

This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When Rogers faced the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.

John Collins
John Collins

Elara is a seasoned sports analyst with over a decade of experience in betting strategies and market trends.